Saving-Growth Nexus in an Oil-Rich Exporting Country: A Case of Nigeria

Adebowale Musefiu Adeleke

Abstract


The study considers the saving-growth nexus in Nigeria using annual data over the period 1970-2013. For this purpose, ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration and error correction model (ECM) for short run dynamics have been applied. According to empirical analyses, real GDP per capita, labour force, total savings, Oil revenue, Population growth, and Human capital are co-integrated. Compared to other variables, savings and population growth are major determinant of economic growth in the long-run. Results also revealed that the speed of adjustment to restore equilibrium is -0.549 which confirms stable long-run relationship. In short-run, Savings, Oil revenue, Population growth, human capital and labour force appear to play a more important role. Thus, a bi-directional causality exists between savings and economic growth in Nigeria; leading to a feedback effect, such that, both the Keynes and the Solow model are relevant for Nigeria. Thus, policy makers are required to implement policies mix aimed at increasing savings and growth in Nigeria.


Keywords


Saving; Economic growth; Autoregressive distributed lag approach; Oil-rich exporting country; Nigeria

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3968/5417

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