Discussion and Application Study on GDP Combination Forecasting Method

Yan LU

Abstract


A combination model of GM (1, 1) model, nonlinear and chaotic dynamics model, and nonlinear quadratic autoregressive model for forecasting GDP has been built. As the GDP data for the test in 2012 of Henan Province, results showed that the three prediction models having higher prediction accuracy can be used for long-term GDP forecasts. Then GDP in 2013-2022 of Henan Province was forecasted by these three forecasting models and the GDP forecast results in 2013-2022 of Henan Province with geometric average of the forecasting outcome of these three forecasting models was given.

Keywords


GDP; GM (1, 1) model; Logistic mapping; Nonlinear autoregressive model

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3968/5622

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