Research on the Abnormal Growth of Chinese Household Savings Under the Effect of “Negative Interest Rate”

Abstract

At present, China has once again entered the era of negative interest rate, but China’s residents’ savings have shown a phenomenon of extraordinary growth. The coexistence of negative interest rate and high savings makes the effect of savings rate weaken the effect of monetary policy. This paper conducts an empirical quantitative analysis of the nominal interest rate, real interest rate and the growth rate of Chinese residents’ savings from 1978 to 2017, in order to and studies the influence and change relationship between the nominal interest rate and real interest rate on Chinese savings. The results show that the nominal interest rate and Chinese household savings change in the same direction, while the real interest rate changes in the opposite direction. In the long run, the sensitivity of both nominal and real interest rates to savings decreases and tends to be stable. It is concluded that savings are still the means of maintaining and increasing the value of the public residents when the inflation rate is relatively obvious. The author analyzes the reasons and disadvantages on this basis. Finally, it points out that we should stick to the general direction of interest rate liberalization reform, improve residents’ consumption ability, and deal with the negative interest rate effect with “Chinese characteristics” flexibly.